PSX Phillips 66

$PSX It's so close to 300 that I don't see why it wouldn't get there. But from a long-term perspective, this is getting absolutely wild.

$PSX Washington's Russian diesel license is aimed right at the crack Phillips 66 is minting. The first license covers 300K tons, which works out to roughly half a day of US distillate demand. PSX's Q2 showed what that crack is worth: adjusted EPS 9.41, realized refining margin 24.08 a barrel vs 11.25 a year ago, with its benchmark 3-2-1 averaging 41.63 vs 21.65. Utilization ran 96%. Small print in the 10-Q: part of the margin gain was mark-to-market that won't repeat once prices stop rising. Meanwhile the board bumped the buyback authorization by 10 billion in July, and TD Cowen just lifted its target to 295 (Goldman to 274) — the Street wants the windfall returned. Half a day of licensed diesel against 96% utilization and triple-digit diesel cracks... the "nothing burger" camp has the arithmetic on its side.

$PSX The deal w Russia is total BS it’s a half day supply of diesel that has 0 impact on PSX

Phillips 66's profit more than doubled in a year, to $7.1B from $1.7B. The company scores a 19 right now, Excellent, #24 of 3,283. $PSX

$PSX There are 130 operable refineries in the United States. The newest one with meaningful downstream processing opened in 1977. Several closed permanently during the COVID years and nothing replaced them. So when refining capacity goes offline overseas, there is no spare plant anywhere to pick up the slack. The shortage shows up as price instead of as empty pumps.