QD Qudian Inc.

$QD My larger bids, which had been sitting between $2.02 and $2.08 for ages, all got hit today following earnings, doubling my position. I'm glad I waited, but I still have plenty of bids below $2.00 just in case. Nobody can predict the bottom on this one or the timing of the eventual buyout and would take months or years. The stock appears to have been hammered by the surprise $116 million tax bill, which certainly wasn't expected. But the math is pretty straightforward. Based on H1 earnings ($61 million), even after paying that tax bill, HTT will have $1.52 billion in tangible book value, including $1.95 billion in tangible assets. Factoring in buybacks since the tender offer, they should have 113 million shares outstanding, putting tangible book value at about $13.40 per share (16%). Still looks expensive compared to LU's 7% of tangible assets, which is wild saying out loud. Takeover unfolding in slow motion.

$QD Now, let's be very conservative. First, I would discount the office building and illiquid assets by $100 million. It might be worth more but being conservative with values. Second, Chinese ADRs have been getting crushed, so I would assume ~$50 million in unrealized losses on HTT's equity holdings between June 30 and today assuming they held these positions. Third, there could be potential penalties and late-payment charges on the tax bill since this goes back several years so I will allow for another $50 million. That brings us from $1.5 billion down to approximately $1.3 billion USD or $11.50 per share. This assumes no recovery whatsoever in HTT's Chinese equity investments from the current Oct. lows and for all I know these could ended up massively profitable. That is the company we are dealing with. 5.50 in cash, 4.50 in stock holdsing and 3 in illiquid assets. Seem to be worth the gamble in the low 2.00 range or lower.

$QD Writing from 30,000 ft. My only comment on the tax bill is that there is basically nothing we can do about it. It's hard to argue that the CEO should personally be on the hook when he never received a dime in cash and the tax liability arose from the company's restructuring. The bill was sent to him because he held the shares as a nominee. There is no way to sugarcoat it and it sucks, but at this point I'm just rolling with it as an unexpected item. I'm also assuming we could see some additional late-payment penalties show up in the next report, although that's still an unknown.

$QD cfo is insane though , interest income 1.284 bn rmb compared to 2025 fy its double in h1 2026 so thats a big positive i guess 170mn$ cfo in h1 2026

$QD they just posted some hours ago the quarterly report i am seeing the 116mn$ individual taxes of the ceo are paid by the company ?! :-) 1.⁠ ⁠sooo is this ok?? opinions maybe he bought back to reach 50-50.1% voting share so as to pass this :)) also considering name change was done recently from qd (quidian) to htt (high templar), that is convenient maybe? so maybe no more buybacks expected (although they have an authorized buyback plan) i know i sound happy but actually sad curious of your opinion "a controlling shareholder/ CEO is having the company pay a large personal tax liability"

$QD Why I don't expect an immediate take-private: 1) Tax issue open: HTT is paying Min Luo's RMB790M (~$116M) tax bill, and more may follow. Without a fixed number, no clean fairness opinion for a 13e-3. 2) Shrinking first is cheaper: ~$92M left in the buyback through Jun 13, 2027, buying near $2. 3) Section 238 appraisal applies to a merger, not a tender. Net cash after tax ~$3.17/sh, book ~$14/sh. Dissenters could claim far more – the smaller the float, the smaller his risk. 4) An offer below $3.20 is hard to justify: HTT itself bought back 40M ADS at that price in June. In court that's an obvious benchmark. The only argument would be the tax (~$1/sh), one more reason to wait until it's settled. 5) The June tender stated 'no current definitive plans' for a merger or delisting. A quick go-private invites lawsuits. But: Luo holds ~92% of the votes and can move anytime. My window: H2 2027–2028.

$QD Q1 '26 Earnings Results & Recap High Templar Tech Limited reported first-half 2026 revenue of RMB8M, net income attributable to shareholders of RMB416.9M, and diluted ADS earnings of RMB2.64.