RITM Rithm Capital Corporation

$RITM This company is holding nearly half it's market cap in cash. Kind of a no brainer here, to be honest. We have earnings next week and with MSR's they hold, I can only imagine those gained a lot in value. Lot of cash on sidelines......and I hope some of those trillions have flowed into the asset management. And I bet their are a lot of good deals out there for companies with cash and patience. We will all be asking ourselves a year from now how we missed this at this price. Just my honest opinion. Perhaps I am overly optimistic.......

$RITM Let me chime in on RITM here before my friend, Randy over here jumps off the bridge. First of all the move in rates and bonds makes sense obviously for multiple reasons but mostly inflation and govt debt. However here is how I look at RITM: Y'all know the term TINS? Maybe young kids dont but it talks about a married couples as in Two Income No Sex. Why do I bring this up? Because RITM is just like my other spouse with income with no sex. You see, regardless of how well RITM performed it was never judged by their financial standing, nor the business divercification they were doing, it was a pure dividend/financial play that moves in unison witht he sector. The same thing is happening here also. Rates are moving higher (FED hikes, inflation yada yada yada , I'm not going into the detailed market analysis here ...yet) but the rates are pulling most financial sectors down with it.

$RITM I wanted to sell this when it was lingering around $10 after owning for 6 years. But this is just a buying opportunity. So I bought 8k shares. Worst comes to worst I just sit on it and make 10%

$RITM They take this stock down when rates go up regardless of the fundamentals Great management and they have diversified into other areas. They are covering the dividend by more then 2 to 1.

$RITM with bond yields heading higher and treasuries looking more attractive, this will get sold. I have 7400 shares and I will hold , but this sucks.

$RITM At these prices, we need a share buy back program that will also be effectively implemented. If they don’t pay out the full earnings (stuck at 0.25$/quarter), they should at least start buying back shares !

$RITM short interest jumped from 28mm on 9/15 to 34+mm on 9/30. Selloff was quite simply a well executed short takedown. No change in thesis here at all. I would expect a flattish book value (with MSR valuations going a tad higher), which still has this trading at under 70% to book value. Coupled with a (exceptionally) well covered dividend that is currently north of 11.5%.

$RITM why no discussion regarding DRA advisors taking a 49% position in the office building, 1301 Avenue of the Americas. The CRE daily article says it was valued at $1.3B while RITM bought Paramount at $1.7B. I’d love le to think that RITM recovered almost half its investment on this one transaction, but perhaps there was some debt assumption that changes this?

$RITM I think we may be seeing some short covering going on. Them shorts don't really want to have to pay that dividend and cut into their profits. They are trying to orderly exit the trade...but since there is 30,000,000 shares short, they have to start early. They are trying to buy back without causing a small squeeze. They have 30M shares and we trade 5M a day........they have 6 days to exit orderly, and they are doing it at a time when we were beat up and people buying for dividend. So many people competing for any shares available.

$RITM JollyRoc brings up a good point. Why haven't I posted for a while. The truth is that while I still see RITM as an attractive core holding position, with the current rate development , FED hikes and US treasury policy It was clear that we're going to go through more pain. It would be futile to keep describing how good the business is if the share price continues to selloff non stop. So why now? First, my level was $8.50 to add and I did, but more importantly I think the things might turn around or at least slow down the reckoning. Obviously all REITs are suffering from the rate hikes and RITM is a REIT so it shall not be spared. Nothing is spared. If your business model depends on the borrowing rate, when the borrowing rate rises your profits fall - common sense right. That said. There is a level where it still makes sense to take that risk because the upside becomes much much larger as well.

$RITM JPM had MSR valuation up meaningfully for Q3. Should portend solid results for both RITM’s MSR book, and the hedging that cost the firm in Q2. Loading up more.

$RITM The old next Friday earnings release trick........we seen this before in April 2025.....lets hope history repeats. Back then we went from $9.75 to $12.75 on a 4 month rip. Not sure why they scheduled on a Friday, I can only assume they want to be out of way before FOMC, elections and all that shit! We shall see......

$RITM thinking of selling at a 23% loss and inventing in $ACCV Open to openions to hold or jump ship

$RITM $9.24 was never a question, it was absolute. The only question is do we head directly to $9 or get a bounce here. the 4th wave bounce may have already happened on the 22nd.

$RITM too early to tell if this heads to 9.24 then bounces or heads directly to $9 before the next bounce.

$RITM Don’t worry those deals will get better, these prices should be at least 15% to 20% lower in the entire REIT & asset management sector, there will be more rate increase without a doubt

$RITM if you have any experience at all stock trading. You would have noticed that the 8:40 was being held up by an act of God or something. It had to finally break through that 8:40. 8:30 is the buy point to start accumulating.

$RITM it sure likes that 8:40 handle. I never trade the first hour. So let's see if it holds that or breaks at 10:30.

$RITM $7’s is where this is heading to now, CPI accelerates. More rate increases are now in horizon. “US consumer prices accelerate in September on costlier gasoline; core CPI firmer”

$RITM While I don't always believe "forward PE's", just saw a forward PE on this of around 3. If that is accurate, the price per share could easily be $20. Thoughts?