SOC Sable Offshore Corp.

$SOC Brent $100 throughout 2027 equals debt free by 2028 which wipes away the collared structure which by the way the collared structure is only for like half their production, the half that isn’t collared will get huge windfall. Brent $100 throughout 2028 means roughly 1 billion free cash flow. PLEASE keep this stock at $3 and let management install a buyback program higher than the current market capitalization of the entire company. Peace headlines with Iran are laughable. I have a better chance of running into the tooth fairy. People will be praying for oil to go back to $100.

$SOC there’s a few times in our lives we get to buy into a company that has all the ingredients for a home run but is disguised as a bad egg. This company is going to destroy the S&P500 the next 5-10 years. The stars are about to align for sable. This is one of those times somebody can make generational money with much less risk than is perceived by the market

$SOC Think the corner has been turned. Should be up from now. At last we have an operational update with a clear pathway to profit.

$SOC little over half their production for 2027 is capped at $87/barrel. The other half is going to fully capture oil over $100 and their breakeven is in the teens….. paytience. Wall Street hates uncertainty. This is going to be violent reversal, won’t be tomorrow or next week, but it’s coming.

$SOC If you put yourselfs in shorts shoes, you want to raid the 2.88$ stop losses to get your liquidity exit on your short position. At 2.88$, shorts will be 30% in the green since the high of 4.10$. We will also get the short report on october 26 for the positions settled through october 15. As of september 30, 35% of the float was shorted with 6 days to cover. It will certainly amplified the rally on goods news.....if......we have it.

$SOC New DPA action involving a Texas refinery On October 13, Vice President JD Vance announced that the administration would use the DPA to expand the Tyler, Texas refinery operated by Delek US Holdings. Another federal directive may be coming Reuters also reports that President Trump is expected to issue a directive in the coming days instructing federal officials to identify ways around state and local restrictions on energy development. Policy significance: Moderate to high. Immediate SOC catalyst strength: Indirect. The administration is expanding its use of the DPA rather than retreating from it despite legal challenges. For Sable, the potentially more consequential development would be a new federal directive explicitly strengthening federal authority over energy production or pipeline operations in California. That directive—not the Delek refinery announcement itself—is the next policy development worth watching closely.

$SOC Tomorrow, October 5, is the Ninth Circuit conference. The remote status conference is scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific / 4:30 PM Eastern. The consolidated cases involve California, PHMSA and Sable, including the dispute over federal pipeline jurisdiction. This is a status conference, not the final merits decision, but it is probably the biggest immediate legal catalyst.

$SOC Jim alluded to Hondo needing a bit more time on the last call. He stated “Hondo needed a lot of work”. It had been out of service for over a decade anyway. So I think this is moving swimmingly and I’ll be happy to spend the next four weeks adding

I'll be watching for the next $SOC production update. Personally, I'm about 90%+ sure that Hondo commissioning is underway due to the following: 1. Frequent helicopter activity throughout late August and September. 2. A K-MAX heavy-lift helicopter near Hondo. 3. A dedicated offshore support vessel repeatedly running to Hondo. 4. A second high-speed utility vessel stopped directly over the Hondo platform location. 5. No public reports of startup delays. 6. SOC guidance targeting September startup.

$SOC with launch of Hondo platform and MMA approval revenues perspectives should improve and also cost of debt potentially could improve.

$SOC Showed this chart a couple of times. Obviously it did not go well. I found another descending trendline a couple of days ago. We just tagged it. It is not a strong one though as we are not yet in oversold area on bigger timeframes. It is very possible that we will test 2.88$ for a double bottom or at least test 3$. If we hold that trendline, we will have resistance at the last 3.28$ pivotal point and the ascending trendline in the 3.35$-3.40$ area. Clearly shorts are in full control and the company needs to release positive news to induce covering and bring some buyers. Markets can ce irrationnal longer than we can stay solvent. Hard time for everyone as we wait for some clarity on Hondo. Take care.

$SOC i am buying call options 4.5$ for october 30. I believe MMA approval will send this in the 8-10$ range.

$SOC What we really need is news that they have waterborne sales available to LA refineries. That would fix so many problems immediately. They said they are pursuing it.

$SOC It’s just a matter of time—the toughest part is behind us! We’re waiting on the 9th Circuit decision and hoping for better financing terms sooner rather than later. I picked up 500 more shares at $3.60 on Friday. Wishing everyone the best! 😊

$SOC Investor expectations of timelines and real world don't always match. But in the end things usually get done. Some will panick and press the button to bale out whilst others will sit and wait.

$SOC IN MY OPINION They will not announce hondo opening this month. Seeing the stock go down, shaking trees of fear to steal shares from retailers. We will see a big month in Octobre with 9th court decision, hondo and maybe Venezuela. I'm a bull but with Trump's friend, I know there is manipulation

$SOC will probably go up ~30% when MMA approval for Hondo hits. Review will be done anytime in October. Just two weeks left, could hit anyday.

$SOC How low do they want to push it? At some point the market will realize we’re priced under what the rigs alone are worth, nevermind the actual booming oil sales taking place

$SOC Free float: ~137M Shares short: ~45.5M That is substantial. Shorts eventually gotta buy shares to close their positions. Hondo startup gets confirmed and this stock really starts moving.

$SOC Anyone in the Santa Barbara region willing to scope out activity at the Las Flores Canyon Processing Facility? Looking for new temporary equipment, increased tank utilization, active construction, Night-time lighting, flare activity, and just more vehicles throughout the facility.