OCUL Ocular Therapeutix Inc

$OCUL At the end of the day, if the "truth" wins out, OCUL will be $25 and KOD will fall to $20. Why? Axpaxli is clearly the superior drug and KOD manipulated its trial simply to show it's 'as good' as Aflibercept. People need to wake up.

$OCUL Keep this in mind as we go forward. The Superiority design trial was the PREFERED trial vs Non-inferiority in the 2023 FDA guidance. The confidentiality of the SPA creates an information gap. SOL-1's raw numbers are public, but the precise regulatory significance of those numbers isn't.... We don't know what the FDA actually agreed to that's contained in the SPA. You need to carefully listen to Dugel regarding his comments about the label. The FDA's eventual label is where that ambiguity gets resolved.

$OCUL I'm not sure what anyone is looking for here. This stock has been manipulated for years. If you are long, you've been here many times. The NDA filing and subsequent acceptance will speak for itself. They have the inside track with the FDA (fact). Once safety data clears it's going to move quickly. Daily stock price is not important and they aren't going alone. (Although understood it's uncomfortable) It's a $6 billion company easily once the NDA is approved. Period.

$OCUL Iveric Bio: Takeover by Astellas Pharma for $5.9 billion (2023) • Biotech context: This example is closest to Ocular Therapeutix, as Iveric Bio developed a similar revolutionary drug to treat geographic atrophy of the eye (advanced dry maculodystrophy). • Event: The company was in the final stage of waiting for FDA approval of the drug (as OCUL is now waiting to file an NDA). Prior to the announcement of the transaction, the structure of management and consultants began to realign, and key medical and commercial advisors began to move into third-party structures, as the commercial launch was completely taken over by the structure. • Summary and logic: A large buyer (Astellas) has bought out a biotech at a huge premium. Top managers who kept their options received colossal parachutes (payouts) and left the company, giving up seats on Big Pharma’s integration team.

$OCUL NDA soooon and first !!! with the label of superiority and as a first-line treatment

$OCUL Kod will likely try to push their label to 24 weeks dosing interval, to match with their "end point" of 6 month interval and surpass Eylea HD by 4 weeks. Eylea HD dosing label is currently approved by the FDA up to 20 weeks. I just feel Kod really pumped those patient eyes 🫪 with 4 months worth of Zenkuda injections before declaring their "6 months" victory on the 5th injection 6 months later....is my final verdict for today. I'm sorry for my unusual number of posts today. They will reduce in frequency as of now. Good luck to us Ocul longs

$OCUL Look around, guys. This price action has absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals.

$OCUL Biotech got slammed yesterday, OCUL included — a perfect storm of macro pressure, sector fragility, and opportunistic trading (MM). OCUL’s drops are almost never about OCUL. With late‑stage data, a huge market, platform tech, and Sanofi already knocking, the real story is M&A potential. I keep adding to my core position on these macro dips, not selling.

$OCUL been a shareholder since before the IPO. Took a little profit over the years but dead money for most of this time. Probably should have been more active selling peaks and buying dips but it is what it is. So frustrating to see the confusion around SOL-1 data and the stock continuing to be depressed but I'm steady holding for things to finally go right. Bought another 4k shares this morning, bringing my total to 35k. GL to all my fellow longs

$OCUL I think Kodiak Zenkuda will end up being pretty similar to Eylea HD. Here’s a few numbers: Kodiak Zenkuda: 70% rescue-free at 16 weeks Eylea HD (PULSAR): 77% rescue-free at 16 weeks Kodiak Zenkuda: 48% rescue-free at 6 months Eylea HD: unknown, but 31% were making it 6 months between injections after 2 years. Ocular AXPAXLI was 77% rescue-free at 6 months. Ocular still clearly differentiated.

$OCUL Let me digest this. KOD's drug shows 54% of patents achieved 24 weeks. SOL-1, using SOL-R criteria had 77% reach week 24 and 66% reach 52 weeks. And the market punishes OCUL? What am I missing? I think the market still doesn't understand the Superiority trial and what it means.

$OCUL This is what happens to a heavily shorted stock in a news vacuum. It will turnaround once we get some good news, which will hopefully come on Tuesday. Doubt Pravin will give any firm dates for the NDA, but if he sounds positive that's the key. I can't see why any news out of the fireside chat will be bad. Need to have faith.

$OCUL Everyone should read about the new FDA-approved retinopathy scale from the Helios 3 study; the chance of success is over 85%. Everyone should examine the Helios 1 data.

$OCUL Added 4k more shares today! This is typical market overreaction. Ocular has the best product and will be first to market.

$OCUL Highly recommend watching the presentation available on Ocul investor website given at Euretina in Austria on October 2nd. It provides with an excellent summary of what is AXPAXLI. In the Sol-1 read out in February, many criticised the "smaller" than expected 17% delta between AXPAXLI and Eylea 2mg at week 36. The matter of fact is, because the FDA only allowed a rescue at a 15 letter loss, many patients on Eylea were allowed to carry fluid until they reached the 15 letter loss. If the requirement to rescue was stricter say at 5 letters lost instead of the 15, most of Eylea patients would likely have been rescued well before the 36 weeks, and as a consequence the delta would surely have been much greater in favour of AXPAXLI. All this is explained in the presentation, including the difference between TKI and any VEGF etc. As someone already mentioned, Ocul SP is really getting beaten by factors non related to the company.

$OCUL The market is currently pricing Axpaxli as a niche indication with no credit towards DR. SOL-R NI and Superiority to HD will be instramentel in taking the markets view of a niche or base case to a 3-5 billion franchise with a 15-20 billion market cap. That or, real world evidence in the clinic as retinal physicians learn application of the therapy as it relates to patients. Either way, the market shows no indication of giving ocul any credit on anything that has not been proven conclusively in a real world matchup.

$OCUL hate to be captain obvious but: Superiority is better than Non-Inferiority. You might want to look up these definitions.

$OCUL Worth paying attention to the executive team assembly here! CEO Pravin Dugel previously led Iveric Bio up through its $5B acquisition by Astellas, while CCO David Robinson spearheaded the commercial launch of EYLEA at Regeneron! With Art Ciociola driving the regulatory strategy toward the AXPAXLI NDA, this leadership group brings proven execution in the retina space. With $5B+ peak market potential and previous buyout interest from Big Pharma, the fundamentals and M&A optionality look strong ahead of FDA catalysts ahead!

$OCUL Set auto BUY 5K shares @ $6.80 and got filled. AXPAXLI is much more de-risked than it was earlier in development. Ocular has reported positive Phase 3 SOL-1 results, FDA alignment regarding the NDA package, and is preparing the wet-AMD NDA submission. 6ix That creates an interesting tension: Lower OCUL share price → cheaper acquisition while AXPAXLI approaching NDA → potentially more valuable asset. That's exactly the combination that can make a biotech attractive strategically.

$OCUL The Company is 93% institutionally owned, last I checked, which is excellent. Doesn't prevent banks and hedgie shenanigans, obliviously, but CEO Dugel stacked the company and a couple of BOD members with his people. Let's just hope they're all connected, saavy enough and can actually pull- off a good deal for shareholders. Waiting around for one last Hail Mary of Axpaxli *sales* is a game of roulette that I personally have no interest in. Just speaking for myself.