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Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer, launch service provider, and satellite communications company. It is building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI. The firm designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on cutting-edge technologies, including the rockets and spacecraft. The company was founded by Elon Reeve Musk in 2002 and is headquartered in Starbase, TX.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

SpaceX

SpaceXs quarterly results beat expectations, with rapid AI/compute growth and expansion plans driving a rally; traders also focused on Musks ambitious revenue outlook and discussions of a potential Tesla merger. Bulls cited growth and AI demand, while skeptics questioned the valuation, heavy capital spending, and whether the projections are achievable; the merger remains exploratory.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. engages in the distribution and manufacture of information technology solutions and other computer products. Its products include twin solutions, MP servers, GPU and coprocessor, MicroCloud, AMD solutions, power supplies, SuperServer, storage, motherboards, chassis, super workstations, accessories, SuperRack and server management products. The company was founded by Charles Liang, Yih-Shyan Liaw, Sara Liu, and Chiu-Chu Liu Liang in September 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.

Super Micro Computer Inc

Super Micros preliminary first-quarter update sharply raised its revenue outlook and improved its gross-margin forecast, citing stronger AI-platform demand. Many traders view the update as a potential validation of growth and a reason for a re-rating, while others question whether the company can deliver consistently and whether the rally will hold.

Netflix, Inc. engages in providing entertainment services. It also offers activities for leisure time, entertainment video, video gaming, and other sources of entertainment. It operates through the United States and International geographic segments. The company was founded by Marc Randolph and Wilmot Reed Hastings on August 29, 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, CA.

Netflix Inc.

Netflix Inc

A quarterly profit beat was overshadowed by softer forward guidance and a reduced advertising outlook amid slowing revenue growth, prompting a sharp selloff. Traders are divided between viewing the drop as overdone and buying the dip, and worrying that weaker ad execution, engagement concerns, and competition could keep growth under pressure.

NVIDIA Corp. engages in the design and manufacture of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software. It operates through the following segments: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and Compute & Networking. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics, virtual GPU, or vGPU, software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating metaverse and 3D internet applications. The Compute & Networking segment consists of Data Center accelerated computing platforms and end-to-end networking platforms including Quantum for InfiniBand and Spectrum for Ethernet, NVIDIA DRIVE automated-driving platform and automotive development agreements, Jetson robotics and other embedded platforms, NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software, and DGX Cloud software and services. The company was founded by Jen Hsun Huang, Chris A. Malachowsky, and Curtis R. Priem in April 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

NVIDIA Corp

Reported orders from ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent for Nvidias export-compliant GPUs are drawing attention, though traders note that U.S. restrictions and limited supply may constrain deliveries. The muted share-price response has fueled debate over whether strong AI demand can outweigh concerns about spending, financing risks and recent weakness in chip stocks.

SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapeutic for cancer indications. Its product pipeline includes galinpepimut-S. The company was founded by Angelos M. Stergiou on April 3, 2006 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc

SELLAS is drawing attention as traders anticipate the REGAL Phase 3 trial reaching its 80-event trigger for final analysis; the last disclosed count was 78. The rebound has fueled speculation about an imminent data update or buyout, amplified by the CEOs next chapter remarks and the companys planned ASH presence, while skeptics stress that no new results or deal have been confirmed.

Nebius Group NV is a technology company that provides infrastructure and services to AI builders worldwide. It offers Nebius AI, an AI-centric cloud platform provides full-stack infrastructure, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud services, and developer tools. The company also operates through specialized brands: Toloka AI, which partners in data for generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech platform focused on re-skilling individuals for tech careers; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology. Nebius Group was founded by Elena Kolmanovskaya, Ilya Segalovich, Mikhail Fadeev, and Arkady Volozh in 1989 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Nebius Group N.V. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Nebius Group N.V. 

Nebius is caught in a broad selloff in AI infrastructure and neocloud stocks, as traders worry about debt-funded expansion, financing costs, and whether demand can justify the buildout; weakness in CoreWeave and other peers is a frequent point of comparison. Bulls argue that strong compute demand and upcoming earnings could support a recovery, while others see the rebounds as temporary amid continued sector and market pressure.

TOSHI

TOSHI is drawing attention amid a rebound and increased trading activity, with traders watching a repeatedly tested resistance area and speculating about a breakout or short squeeze. Optimism over a possible move higher is countered by concerns that previous rallies have faded; talk of an upcoming announcement or listing remains unconfirmed.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of air transportation services. It operates through the following segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The Alaska Airlines segment includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Hawaiian Airlines segment refers to scheduled air transportation on Hawaiian's Boeing and Airbus aircraft for passengers and cargo. The Regional segment consists of Horizon's and other third-party carriers’ scheduled air transportation on E175 aircraft for passengers under CPAs. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Seattle, WA.

Alaska Air Group Inc.

Alaska Airs quarterly results and outlook are driving discussion: revenue growth was offset by sharply higher fuel costs, a reported loss, and a weaker loss outlook. Traders are split between focusing on premium and loyalty growth and betting that easing oil prices could help, while others remain concerned about fuel pressure and near-term losses.

Redwire Corp. engages in the development and provision of space and defense technologies and mission-critical solutions for government, commercial, and civil customers. Its offerings include spacecraft platforms, space infrastructure, avionics, sensors and payloads, power generation systems, radio frequency systems, microgravity research and manufacturing technologies, autonomous systems, optical sensors, and digital engineering solutions. The company was founded in 2020 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, FL.

Redwire Corporation

Redwire Corp

Attention is centered on Redwires upcoming Q3 earnings, with traders watching support for a possible double bottom and looking for a catalyst to reverse recent weakness. Some expect a lift from strength in other space stocks, while others remain cautious about low volume and the stocks inability to hold gains.

MP Materials Corp. engages in the production and marketing of rare earth specialty materials. It operates through the following segments: Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment focuses on the operation of Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth oxides and related products, as well as rare earth concentrate products. The Magnetics segment is involved in the operation of Independence Facility, where the company began production of magnetic precursor products. The company was founded by James Henry Litinsky and Michael Rosenthal in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, NV.

MP Materials Corporation

MP is being discussed amid a broad rare-earth sector selloff and uncertainty over U.S.China negotiations and Chinese rare-earth shipments. Traders are split between near-term concerns about continued weakness and the longer-term case for U.S. supply-chain independence, government backing, and MPs magnet-production ramp.

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SPCX Stock Jumps Overnight: Musk Teases $1 Trillion Revenue By 2028 — Analyst Sees 95% Tesla Merger Odds In 2 Years 

Equity

Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management analyst Brett Winton said Tesla shareholders looking beyond 2030 should favor a merger even without a premium.

Tesla Stock At $4,400? Cathie Wood's ARK Pins Hopes On Robotaxis, Sees SpaceX Merger In 5 Years

ARK says a Tesla-SpaceX merger could result in combined revenue of $3.8 trillion by 2031.

TSLA, SPCX Eye Green Open: Gary Black Predicts $420 SpaceX Buyout Of Tesla — Sees Announcement In ‘Next Few Weeks’ 

Gene Munster also interpreted the Roadster showcase as another sign of Musk’s desire to combine Tesla and SpaceX.

TSLA Stock Gets Some Thrust From ‘Flying’ Roadster Reveal — Munster Calls It ‘Engineering Flex’ With A Tesla-SpaceX Clue  

Tesla outlined Performance, Thrust and flight-capable Rocket versions, showcasing a 0-60 mph time of 0.81 seconds.

Elon Musk Sees SpaceX Topping $100 Trillion In Under 10 Years — Retail Eyes Tesla Merger Reveal At Roadster Event 

Barclays outlined potential merger-announcement windows before Tesla’s annual meeting or within six to 12 months if announced separately.

TSLA Stock Slips Overnight Ahead Of Roadster Event — Elon Musk Promises ‘Greatest Product Demo Of All Time’ 

Musk’s proposed SpaceX thruster package and past flying-car claims have raised expectations for the event.

SpaceX Could Be Worth $50 Trillion In 10 Years, Says Ron Baron: ‘Elon Thinks I’m Way Low’ 

Baron sees Starlink reaching a $14 trillion to $15 trillion valuation, with annual revenue potentially climbing to $1 trillion.

TSLA Stock Rises Overnight: Tesla’s Long-Delayed Roadster Event Is Back On — Musk Teases ‘Timing Is Everything’ 

Tesla will livestream its postponed Roadster event Thursday at 7:55 p.m. CST.

SPCX Stock Jumps Overnight: Trump Hails Musk As ‘Modern-Day Thomas Edison’ Days After POTUS Portfolio Bought SpaceX Bonds

Disclosures showed Trump’s portfolio bought up to $5 million in SpaceX bonds two days before his Aug.20 space-policy push.

SPCX Stock Climbs Overnight: Musk Teases SpaceXSI After Trump’s SI Push — Analyst Calls Shares ‘Unusually Cheap’ 

Morgan Stanley called shares “unusually cheap” ahead of Starship Flight 15, maintaining a $300 target implying about 89% upside from current levels.

Tidal Trust II - Defiance Daily 2X Space ETF

Bullish Sentiment

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Musk said $1 trillion in SpaceX revenue in 2028 was “no longer impossible,” versus the 2030 scenario he outlined in June.</li><li>Gene Munster sees 95% odds of a Tesla merger within two years, while Dan Ives puts the probability at 80%-90% by end-2027.</li><li>Independent committees are exploring a merger, but Musk cautioned that shareholder approval is a hurdle.</li></ul>Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) jumped over 8% overnight late Tuesday as CEO Elon Musk said $1 trillion in revenue in 2028 was “no longer impossible,” while Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster put the odds of a Tesla (TSLA) merger within two years at 95%.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPCX">SPCX stock</a> edged 0.1% lower to close Tuesday at $147.79. Shares are down 2% so far in October, on track to snap a two-month winning streak.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Musk Floats A Faster Path To $1 Trillion</h2>“As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible,” Musk&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2112666467712073815">said on X</a>. His outlook&nbsp;brings the possibility forward by two years from the scenario he outlined in June, when he said the milestone might not be reached until 2030.His latest post followed an ambitious claim on the earnings call about SpaceX’s annual revenue run rate (ARR) by the end of next year: “I mean, in a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 is somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion”&nbsp;Meanwhile, CFO Bret Johnsen maintained the goal of exiting 2026 at a $100 billion ARR. Munster said investors’ willingness to look past that unchanged goal suggested&nbsp;they were focused on 2027 and beyond.ARK Investment Management’s Chief Futurist Brett Winton said the longer-term run-rate ambition wasn't far ahead of ARK’s expectations. “$500b+ in ARR by end of 27 sounds a lot, but it's not that far ahead of our expectations,” Winton&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/wintonARK/status/2112649163632767228">said</a>. “Our model suggests $300b, crossing $500b in the first half of 28.”<h2 class="st-heading-2">Tesla Merger Optimism Builds, But Musk Flags Hurdles</h2>Munster, on the other hand, interpreted the call as another step toward combining Musk’s businesses. “The stars are lining up for Elon to fully realize his vision of $SPCX being a vertical AI company, with the odds of a $TSLA merger increasing,” he&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/munster_gene/status/2112671052639936752">said on X</a>.In a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/munster_gene/status/2112656387075404269">separate post</a>, he said: “My take: 95% chance in the next two years.” Musk confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla had formed special committees of independent directors at shareholders’ request. Since he runs both companies and is a conflicted party, he said he cannot participate in the talks. He pointed to potential benefits from cooperating on superintelligence software, chip design, Terafab, robotics, mass-to-orbit capabilities and connectivity.“I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it,” Musk said. He also said Tesla approval would require support from 50% of all shares, rather than only shares voted, calling it “quite a high hurdle.”Winton also said that Tesla shareholders with investment horizons beyond 2030 should favor a merger even without a premium. “Tesla shareholders should be in favor of the merger at no premium, if their time horizon is anything beyond 2030. A 50% premium would bring 2030 in bounds as well,” Winton&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/wintonARK/status/2112657104171598274">said on X</a>.Yorkville Ives partner and senior managing director Dan Ives also&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/DivesTech/status/2112710327490040309">put the odds</a> of a Tesla-SpaceX merger by the end of 2027 at 80%-90%, citing strategic AI and data benefits and calling it “the right move for Musk.”<h2 class="st-heading-2">SPCX Q3 Review</h2>SpaceX beat Q3 estimates with earnings of $0.35 per share versus $0.16 expected and revenue of $14.575 billion against a $13 billion forecast. It projected first quarter (Q1) revenue of $33 billion-$37 billion and fourth quarter (Q4) capex of $35 billion-$40 billion, with Q4 gross margins more consistent with Q2.Ives expressed optimism&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/DivesTech/status/2112642600125747530">on X</a>: “They beat across all metrics and the Starlink business looks to be accelerating while the core Space sector is ready for a big 2027.”&nbsp;<h2 class="st-heading-2">TSLA Capex Expectations Put Cash In Focus</h2>SpaceX’s funding needs also drew attention, with both Munster and GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson expecting a capital raise. Munster sees a capital raise within six months, pointing to operating cash flow, debt access and potential vendor financing.Additionally, Johnson noted that cash and cash equivalents had fallen 50% from about $100 billion a quarter ago to $50 billion, missing consensus by about $40 billion. He sees SpaceX raising money again in the fourth quarter and questioned how the position squared with a Tesla acquisition.On the call,&nbsp;finance chief Johnsen confirmed discussions with debt-capital providers and said SpaceX intended to preserve its investment-grade status while financing its expansion. “You have your operational cash flows, first and foremost,” he said. “You have multiple pools of capital available in the debt market, especially because of our investment grade status and strong balance sheet.”<h2 class="st-heading-2">How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?</h2>On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX flipped dramatically to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 300% surge in 24-hour message volumes.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/spcx_ss_72575b6d53.png" alt="spcx ss.png" width="641" height="344"><figcaption>SPCX sentiment and message volume as of October 20 | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure>One user&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/supapimp/message/666973530">said</a>, “$TSLA I’ll be happy with $500 a share if the<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPCX"> $SPCX</a> merger happens.”<stembedurl>https://stocktwits.com/supapimp/message/666973530</stembedurl>Another user&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/goodnes/message/666981820">said</a>, “$SPCX Gamma squeeze tomorrow.&nbsp; Premiums were very low and now they will explode higher.&nbsp; Everyone is going to try to get it all at once..”<stembedurl>https://stocktwits.com/goodnes/message/666981820</stembedurl>SPCX stock has declined 8% year-to-date.For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.Read Next:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/space-x-tesla-form-independent-committees-to-explore-merger-elon-musk-says-deal-not-a-certainty/cZxABS0RBHQ">SpaceX, Tesla Form Independent Committees To Explore Merger: Elon Musk Says Deal ‘Not A Certainty’&nbsp;</a>

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk greets the crowd as he provides an update on the development of the Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket at the companys Launch facility in south Texas. Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

SPCX Stock Jumps Overnight: Musk Teases $1 Trillion Revenue By 2028 — Analyst Sees 95% Tesla Merger Odds In 2 Years

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Hold rates steady

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Fed decision day is here - Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting with markets pricing a hold at 3.50%-3.75% but watching for a hawkish shift. Vote on what you expect to be decided today, then drop your prediction for the first rate cut or hike in the comments.

What do you expect the Fed to decide at its FOMC meeting today? 
 
Drop a comment with when you expect the first cut/hike to be.

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