BluntForceOptions
$ACH Quick backstory for anyone not tracking this one. Accendra is the old Owens & Minor, now a pure-play home-based care business (Apria, Byram) after selling the products segment at the end of 2025. In Aug, a Q2 miss, a guidance reset and a CEO retirement announcement gapped the stock from roughly $3 to under $1.50. It has bled nearly every session since and closed today at $0.22.
That said, I initiated a 20K share starter at $0.21.
Tell of the tape... technicals I'm looking at
• Daily RSI 11.20. Slow Stochastics 3.10 / 3.41. About as stretched as a daily chart gets.
• ADX 66 with -DI at 45 and +DI at 4. This has been a one-way trend, not a choppy one. The tell I want is ADX rolling over.
• 4.78M shares traded today, roughly 3x the average. Capitulation volume tends to look like this.
Why there's a trade here, IMO
• Market cap is about $17M against roughly $1.71B of net debt. The equity is a ~1% sliver of enterprise value, so small changes in how the market values the business move the stock in multiples.
• No near-term maturity wall. The Jun debt exchange pushed the secured notes out to 2032 and 2033.
• $300M revolver was undrawn at quarter-end, with ~$271M available after letters of credit.
• Management floated an ATM in Aug, then pulled it.
• BofA's latest 13G shows 8.27M shares, 10.8% of the class as of 9/30, up from 3.78M at the end of Q2.
• Street targets run $1.30 to $1.75. They're stale, but every one sits above the $1.00 handle.
Levels I'm watching
• $0.88: the 50-day SMA and the Sept breakdown shelf. A clean 4x from here. The 50-day is falling fast, so a first test likely comes in lower. I'll take it.
• $0.195: where market cap crosses $15M. NYSE suspends on a 30-day avg below that, with no cure period. That's the real clock on this name, IMO... more than the $1.00 notice, which carries a 6 mo cure from Oct 6.
• Q3 print: not yet confirmed, expected late Oct to early Nov.
Bottom line: Again, it's just a spec mean-reversion flyer... and sized as one. 20K shares leaves plenty of room to add on intraday flushes or confirmation of a turn, and the market-cap line above is exactly why I'm not swinging bigger out of the gate. When these washed-out, heavily traded small caps finally turn, the trip back to the 50-day doesn't take long. Anyway, stay tuned. I'll provide an update at some point.
As always, just sharing my work. Check everything yourself. Not financial advice.
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