APLD Applied Digital Corporation

$APLD $CRWV $META Meta reports Wednesday, and Applied Digital and CoreWeave both have a lot riding on it. The APLD board has speculated that Meta is the customer behind the company's three newest campuses and offered some great evidence for it. The filings check out. The tenant on the Delta Forge 2 county paperwork is registered at 1 Meta Way. Applied has already said all three campuses share one customer, so more than half of its contract book would sit with Meta. It's still unofficial, which is how hyperscalers tend to like it. Meta matters on the CoreWeave side, too. It's one of CoreWeave's biggest customers, and a Meta contract backed the first investment-grade loan CoreWeave ever landed. Applied's credit work on the Ellendale leases came right behind that loan. On that side of the book, CoreWeave is the middleman. This week the market went after the middleman, and the backdrop gave it plenty of reason. The Fed went back to hiking in September, Wednesday's inflation print ran hot, and the odds of a second hike at the October 28 meeting went from about one in five to roughly a coin flip. Money rotated out of AI and chips, which is how the Dow finished the week up while the Nasdaq pulled back a week after it set a record. Oracle, the Korean memory names, and the neoclouds all sold off on worries about how the buildout gets financed and what that money costs. CoreWeave's unsecured 2031s traded as low as 78 cents on the dollar, yielding more than 16 percent, while the 10-year fell almost a quarter of a point. Rising hike odds and a falling 10-year read to me like a market pricing a Fed that tightens into a slowdown, which is a bad combination for the biggest borrower in the group. Applied's exposure runs through Ellendale. CoreWeave is the weakest credit on a tenant list where everyone else is investment grade, and its bear case was always going to live in the interest line. Last quarter that interest bill ran about five times its adjusted operating income. CoreWeave will be back in the market for money for at least the next couple of years, and the cheapest door it has left depends on rating agencies feeling generous in a tape like this. I'm not waving that off. Then I pulled up the landlord paper, which was a lot calmer. The 7 percent notes from June, the ones funding the third Ellendale building, slipped about a point to 94.5. CoreWeave is the tenant behind those notes and the borrower behind its own 2031s, yet at the lows their yields were about eight percentage points apart. Most of that gap is collateral. The Ellendale noteholders have a lien on the building and its lease, and CoreWeave needs that capacity to serve its own customers. CoreWeave's unsecured holders get paid after everyone with collateral. Cipher's secured notes, with no CoreWeave behind them, barely moved off par. That tells me the people who get paid first are pricing this as a CoreWeave problem. The stocks didn't sort any of it out. Landlords with no CoreWeave exposure got sold right alongside Applied and Galaxy, and I'd have been surprised by anything else. The landlords themselves stand about where their bonds do. If I got to pick how a credit scare in this sector plays out, I'd pick something close to this week, with the most levered name's unsecured debt taking the hit while the paper secured by buildings mostly holds. The risk I'm left with sits in the stretch where interest is already on the books and the rent is still catching up. A building slipping now gives a tenant under pressure an opening to revisit the lease, and the financing for the next campuses gets priced in this tape. If the landlord notes start following CoreWeave's unsecured debt down, the structure isn't providing the protection I'm counting on, and the bond quotes would show it well before a lease does. Meta goes first on Wednesday. If the spending holds, the money keeps moving down the line. A capex cut or softer talk about renting outside capacity would hit everyone below it, and Applied twice. The Fed meets a week later, CoreWeave reports a couple of weeks after that, and I'll read its interest line before I look at the backlog. It's an uncomfortable spot to be in. The parts of the structure I can check held up this week, and I own the equity, which is last in line behind all of it. The stock and the structure can stay out of sync for a while, and this kind of selloff will probably return every time CoreWeave raises money. I can live with that as long as the landlord notes stay where they are.

$APLD just the tip right now. Come on people, wake up! It's Saturday. Due diligence and hopium day.

$APLD A few things that helped me sleep easier regarding CRWV… 1. In March, CRWV moved part of the APLD leases to a subsidiary company whose debt is A3 rated (investment grade). The Polaris Forge 1 150 MW Eln03 building is fully on that A3 subsidiary, and 2 of the 4 data halls in the 100 MW Eln02 building are too. The other half stay with CoreWeave Inc. which owes a $50M letter of credit as extra security. So, that means roughly 80% of our current CRWV rent comes from an investment grade entity! The remaining 150 MW building at PF1, Eln04 leased to CRWV is under construction, due in 2027 and it will move to a subsidiary if it earns an investment grade rating. 2. PF 1 is about $11B of APLDs $36B contracted. PF 2, 3 and both Delta Forge campuses are all leased to investment grade hyperscalers. PF 2 comes online towards year end. 🤞 More in comments…

$APLD Interesting development. Microsoft reportedly backed out of a UK data center deal with Nscale, with power availability being a major issue. Apparently, some projects could be waiting until the 2030s for grid access. Meanwhile, APLD already has 250 MW operational at Polaris Forge 1, says construction is on schedule, and has financing secured for 600 MW of contracted capacity. This is why I like APLD’s position. Everyone wants to build AI data centers, but having the power, financing, and ability to actually deliver is a different story. As more projects run into these problems, I think APLD becomes that much more valuable.

$APLD Taking CHRN out of the mix, the market is pricing Applied digital at $3.4 billion. That's for $36 billion in guaranteed contracts over 15 years. It will all be up and running in under two years. All in places that want data centers. All in places that will benefit greatly by APLD being there.

$APLD all this talk about $15… great I welcome it, but who cares, don’t time thr market and start buying more $50-60 coming in next 2 quarters!

$APLD this has gone to the extreme of ‘guilty until proven innocent’ over a very short period of time. This price action is completely mismatched with the company’s performance and execution. My only other thought is that selling here makes no sense at all. Let’s see where the sp is after another 600mw comes online over the next 12 months. This can turn positive very quickly and I expect a turnaround after the election and over the next 2 quarters. GLTA 🎣🙌

$APLD next few months are going to be exciting with everything firing up and revenue coming in, know what you hold

$APLD End-of-year price prediction: $45. 🎯 Remember how fast this stock moves in both directions. With a Santa Claus rally, improved macro backdrop, and the final 100MW lease signed, $45 is on the table by EOY. What say you?

$APLD when I go to the salon and the stylist cuts too much hair off I always say, it will grow back. Same logic here… just takes time…

$APLD who would like some aerial shots of PF3? Not ones I can take credit for (this time)

$APLD Just a couple of thoughts on Wes and Applied... if I'm not mistaken, they were the first BTC-miner to make the transition to AI/Data centers. He has been talking about DC companies "blowing up" in late 2026/2027 > Microsoft just cancelled a deal with NScale due to power not being available in their UK site until 2030 > 1GW in Finland for APLD projected in 2028. He was just on Bloomberg talking about how financing DC's has become harder just before the Coreweave debt debacle... He seems to be ahead of the curve pretty often. I might be reading into things too much but it gives me a sense of comfort.

$APLD thinking history is gonna repeat itself, last November low and then a huge shoot up. Might just be overly optimistic but a year of getting fucked surely it’s gotta come to an end soon

$APLD I am terribly sorry about that. It is very difficult especially if you are investing Long to have bought in high to be hold a bag to see your beloved stock lose huge value on paper. If it were me, I would look at the price history of APLD over the last two years and see how the stock has behaved when it has sold off and then see what happened after it at bottomed and rebounded. In general it sold off massively and repeatedly over the last few years, only to bottom, and then shoot to a new all-time high. The stock is incredibly volatile as is the whole sector because it and it’s peer companies are in the buildout phase where they are spending gargantuan amounts of money and taking on debt to build out while having paltry amounts of their actual capacity completed and operating and generating recurrent revenue yet. As a result, you have massive volatility. I believe the script will flip when APLD completes its 1.4 GW under contract that’s under construction at the end of 2028 and is generating recurring revenue that the company predicts will produce more than $2 billion of net operating income which company believes will be much more than sufficient to cover all the debt. To be clear investment banks predict the company will have to incur something like $13 billion more debt to complete all of its current construction. So my time horizon is not this month or next month or six months but rather the end of 2028 and I’m buying stock not for those short periods, but for what I believe is likely to be at the end of that time horizon when all 1.4 GW under contract is actually built. But I’m patient because I’ve learned that being patient is the way to go for me. I stupidly sold during one of the earliest APLD sell offs and lost a bunch of money as the stock then zoomed back up past where I sold. I learned my lesson. I Always buy where I believe the stock is low and sell high.  I would not quarrel with anyone Who sells this stock if it’s in the high $40S or $50 while it’s still the construction phase. I have done that. Now I buy it only in the $20S. And preferably sub $25. To me sub $20 is stupid cheap. $18 is wilds. $15 or $16 would force me to sell other stocks tograb more share. And why? Because I’ve done my diligence and I believe in the company, I believe in its business plan, in its executives and I believe that it is extraordinarily confident in executing its construction. I do believe that company and it stock price are two different things and that eventually the stock price will catch up with the fundamentals of company if the company’s Fundamentals and execution are strong.  But an end of 2028 time horizon investment requires extraordinary patience and I expect we will have an tremendous amount of volatility in the share price between now then and the market is designed to shake retail shareholders out of their shares by evaporating their patience and panicking them specially for those retail shareholders who have not done the adequate amount of due diligence on their investment and trade on momentum and what other people think. I actually don’t give a flying fuck what other people think which is why I am buying like crazy now. I care about my own due diligence. And at least for my own investment I am satisfied with my own assessment as to the long term prospects and fundamental of the company as to where I believe it will be by the end of 2028.

$APLD Took the side by side out for a ride with the fam to try to forget about stocks for the weekend 🤣 But... im still on ST 🤷‍♂️ What can i say, we are family APLD badasses!

$APLD So....after breaking the longterm support in the twenties that we had held many times prior...we are now approaching the weekly 200 EMA @ $17.13. I would expect this to bounce somewhere around there...the weekly 200 SMA is a little lower in the 13's but if we don't get any institutional money jumping in here then it makes you want to start questioning the fundamentals. I don't think there's anything wrong from that standpoint and has done extensive research in this area and was kind enough to share with us all so if you're having doubts...I would advise going back and looking at his research. All that to say....I am going to keep buying and those buys are already set so bring it on down. Good Luck everyone.

$APLD I’ve always viewed these emotional, fear-driven sell-offs as opportunities to accumulate shares in companies with tremendous long-term potential. The echo chambers can point to debt, tariffs, and inflation, but these aren’t new obstacles for hypergrowth companies. The most valuable commodity of the AI era may ultimately be POWER. And APLD has an enormous amount of power capacity allocated to support its AI data center expansion. Compute demand is exploding, but you can’t build data centers at scale without power. Securing access to massive amounts of electricity is a competitive advantage that will become increasingly valuable as AI infrastructure demand accelerates. These massive discounts only happen once or twice a year and they always result in violent reversals. With big-tech earnings and midterms right around the corner I wonder what happens next? 📈📈📈📈📈📈📈

$APLD I keep seeing people argue that APLD needs to be profitable first. To my posts. But seriously, we're talking about an industry investing billions in infrastructure with construction and expansion planned through 2030. Look at CRWV and NBIS. These companies are generating revenue and even positive EBITDA, yet spending enormous amounts on expansion. Expecting significant net profits or positive free cash flow at this stage completely misses the point. That's not how growth investing works. You invest based on future cash flows, execution, contracts and long-term returns, not just today's bottom line. Of course profitability matters eventually, and so do debt and dilution. But the real question is whether these investments will generate attractive returns once operational. If we wait until everything is built and fully profitable before assigning value, what's the point of investing in growth companies?

$APLD Happy Friday, Haters! I'd be offended if I cared what you think in the first place! .....Rest up and try again next week!!!!

$APLD Expect the stock to take off as we get to closer to the earning in early Jan. The revenue will reflect all the MW that was delivered in Q4 2026. Expect a quick recovery into the mid term election!